Thursday, January 26, 2012

Is the Gold Rush Over?

Nothing Can Stop the Gold Bull Market Profits
By Brian Hicks | Thursday, January 26th, 2012

Brian HicksAt 11 years and counting, the bull market for gold has created more than its share of millionaires.
What's more, millions of investors have used gold to protect the value of their money.
Even the worst stock market crash in a hundred years is now just a blip on the ever-rising gold chart...
goldchart.12412.3 
It's true: there's never been a better time to own gold and silver.
And if you haven't allocated some of your investment capital to gold, well, current prices are about as low as they'll be for 2012 and beyond.
And when you consider the reasons that investors are flocking to gold... 
  • the debt situation in Europe
  • worldwide low interest rates
  • the near certainty of rampant inflation
  • U.S. dollar devaluation
  • record gold-buying in China
  • gold prices have rallied 11 years in a row
It's easy to see why prices will be higher in 2012 — and the year after that, and the year after that...
How high will gold prices go?
Morgan Stanley says $2,200 an ounce is coming this year.
Citigroup likes gold even more, forecasting a $2,400 price per ounce.
The problem is, while Citi and Morgan Stanley love to tell you how high gold prices will go, they never offer up the critical details on the very best way to profit from gold and silver.
But all that changes next week.
Because on January 31st at 6 p.m. EST, you'll get the expert answers to all of your most critical gold investment questions — absolutely FREE in just 15 minutes and from the comfort of your own home or office — in a groundbreaking video investment seminar called The Complete Gold and Silver Buyers Guide
I've lined up one of the world's foremost gold experts for this investment event: a man with 34 years of gold investment experience; a man who's overseen $400 million dollars' worth of gold transactions — including exclusive distribution agreements with Great Britain, France, South Africa, Australia, Russia, and China.
They don't get any more connected than this man, so you know you're getting the very best advice...
During this special FREE video investment seminar, you'll learn how to:
  • Protect your wealth from the fall of the European Union
  • Insulate your investment from volatile gold prices
  • Enjoy TAX-FREE gold and silver profits
  • Profit from gold's upside, and protect yourself from the downside
And all you have to do to reserve your seat for this landmark investment seminar, The Complete Gold and Silver Buyers Guide, is click on the link below:

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Reg 28 and Retirement Funds

Regulation 28 Note

The table below reflects the requirement for Regulation 28 compliance. Kindly compare your current holdings to that of the table below.

Conditions for Reg 28 Compliance:
  Equity holdings must be less or equal to 75%.
  Property holdings must be less or equal to 25%.
  Equity + Property must be less than or equal to 90%. 
  Bonds and Cash holdings can be up to 100%.
  Foreign exposure must be less or equal to 25%.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

SA Latest Unemployment Figures

Stats SA released the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for Q3 2011 yesterday. The LFS is a quarterly household survey specifically designed to measure the dynamics of employment and unemployment in South Africa, including the informal sector as well as small-scale subsistence farmers. The following is a summary of the key trends in the labour market as at Q3 2011 (see charts attached for further information).

In Q3 2011, there were 32.555 million people aged between 15 and 64 years in SA (up 120 000 relative to Q2 2011, and up 483 000 year-on-year).

Among these people:
17.761 million were economically active (up 98 000 relative to Q2 2011)
13.318 million were employed (up 193 000 relative to Q2 2011)
4.442 million were unemployed (down 96 000 relative to Q2 2011. The number of discouraged workers fell by 3 000 in the quarter)

This implies that the official unemployment rate is now down at 25.0%, compared with 25.7% in Q2 2011. This is a very welcome improvement, but at 25%, the unemployment rate is still extremely high by global standards. Using the expanded definition, the unemployment rate is still well above 30%; reflecting the high level of discouraged workers.

As mentioned above, the number of employed people rose by a very welcome 193 000 in Q3 2011 relative to Q2 2011. This gain in employment occurred mostly in the formal sector (+238 000). The agricultural sector also gained 26 000. In contrast, the informal sector shed 53 000 jobs, while private households lost 19 000.

Over the past year, the SA economy has added an relatively impressive 343 000 jobs. While this is still below the key target level of 500 000, it reflects a significant turnaround relative to recent years. All of the gains in the past year have been in the formal sector (+393 000). In contrast the informal sector has shed 12 000 jobs. There were also losses in agricultural employment (-16 000 in the past year) and domestic workers (-21 000 in the past year).

There remains a significant debate within South Africa regarding the accuracy of the various employment surveys. However, the current trend in the employment surveys suggest that at least SA is past the worst of the job-cutting cycle (see chart 3 attached) and could expect more meaningful gains in employment during the next couple of years. The key question is now how many jobs can SA create? The New Growth Plan has set a target of creating 5 million jobs over the next 10 year. The is a worthy target, but also a very ambitious target. Hopefully, SA’s economic policy will increasingly focus on how to encourage job creation in the private sector.

Clearly, job creation is not merely a function of interest rates or the cost of capital. Other important policies play a crucial role in facilitating job creation, namely fiscal (tax) policy, labour policy, education policy, competition policy, industrial policy, trade policy, exchange rate policy etc etc. Asking monetary policy to consistently solve all of SA’s economic woes is unfair and unrealistic. SA’s high unemployment requires a far more complete and bolder solution, that has the role of the private sector firmly at its core.    

South Africa’s unemployment rate remains far too high by historical and international standards, and clearly contributes to much of the social tension and anguish experienced in South Africa on a daily basis. As we have stated on many occasions, increasing the number of people employed in South Africa has to be the number one economic/political/social objective.